HotlineRecently, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the latest global economic outlook report in Paris, saying that the global economy has not been able to break out of the "low growth" trap in the past five years, and the global economic growth rate is expected to be 2.9% this year.
In contrast, China's GDP grew by 6.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year. Economists agree that from the published data, there is no suspense in achieving the economic growth target of more than 6.5% for the whole year. Under the situation that the global economy is weak and external demand is sluggish, and the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure and structural adjustment, it is not easy to achieve such a result.
Horizontal ratio: inject hope into the weak world economy
Horizontal comparison, China's growth rate of 6.7% in the first three quarters boosted confidence in the world economy. Bloomberg surveyed 58 economists on China's economic prospects at the end of September. The results showed that their average forecast for China's economic growth this year has increased to 6.6%. Reuters reported that "a series of Chinese economic data shows that China's economy is stabilizing." Agence France-Presse pointed out that the latest data in the third quarter means that China will meet the government's target of 6.5%-7% economic growth.
A series of positive factors are continuing to brew -
In terms of industry, in October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and remained above 6% for 8 months;
In terms of investment, in the first 10 months of this year, national fixed asset investment increased by 8.3% year-on-year, of which private investment increased by 2.9%, accounting for 61.5% of total investment;
In terms of consumption, in the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 23 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 10.4% year-on-year; the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 71.0%, an increase of 13.3 over the same period of the previous year and the previous year. 11.1 percentage points...
For the fourth quarter of China's economic growth prospects, Bloomberg expects that industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales data in September show that China's economic growth momentum is strong, and this momentum "will continue into the fourth quarter."
Longitudinal ratio: stable in "increasing speed"
In a vertical comparison, the era of China's rapid economic growth has passed. Observing the curve of China's economic fluctuations over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, we can see that GDP growth rate is only three consecutive 2-3 years for less than 8%: the first is 1979-1981, the second is 1989-1990 The third time was 1998-1999.
According to Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the China National Economic Climate Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, the three declines were mainly caused by external short-term factors. In the past four years, it has emerged: Since 2012, China’s GDP growth rate has started to decline year by year. “But this is not the downside of the economic cycle, but the fundamental transformation of the economic growth stage, indicating that China’s economic development has entered. New normal."
Behind this change, there is a deep meaning contained in the "new normal": the pace is slow, but it is better and more stable.
Steady progress, "into" in "innovation." Taking Chongqing as an example, the first three quarters led the country with an economic growth rate of 10.7%. From 2014 to the first three quarters of this year, Chongqing's GDP growth rate has led the country for 11 consecutive quarters. Looking at the development model of Chongqing, the new power mainly comes from the contributions of the electronic information industry and strategic emerging manufacturing. In the first three quarters, the added value of strategic emerging manufacturing in Chongqing increased by 22.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 12.2 percentage points higher than the overall industrial growth rate.
Steady progress is good, "good" is in "structure." For the two megacities in Beijing and Shanghai, the economic growth rate has continued to slow down in recent years, but the profound changes in the structure of the three industries and the internal structure of the industry are stimulating new vitality. In the first half of the year, the service industry accounted for 81.9% of Beijing's GDP; Shanghai's financial industry added value of more than 240 billion yuan in the first half of the year, leading the country with a growth rate of 17.1%.
Systematic view: comprehensively deepening reform, inciting development, adding vitality
As of the end of October, the steel has completed 45 million tons of annual capacity-removal targets ahead of schedule, and the annual target of coal to capacity of 250 million tons is also expected to be completed ahead of schedule – looking back to the upcoming 2016, with supply-side structural reforms. The system is advancing, and new and old kinetic energy is accelerating the conversion.
"Since this year, the supply-side structural reform has been gradually pushed forward, and the five tasks of ‘three to one, one reduction and one supplement' have achieved positive results,” said Wang Yiming, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council. At the same time of progress in de-capacity, de-leverage began to be launched, and policies such as reducing corporate leverage and market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps were introduced; the cost reduction was progressing rapidly, and taxes, electricity prices, and five insurances and one gold were lowered; The short-term strength is relatively large, and investment in agriculture, rural areas, water conservancy, poverty alleviation, and environmental protection has increased significantly.
In the view of economists, the deepening of the deepening of reform and opening up will further incite development and increase vitality.
An important yardstick for measuring the effectiveness of reform and development lies in the “sense of gain” of the people.
In the first three quarters of this year, the income growth rate of urban residents in Guizhou and Qinghai was 9%, and the growth rate of urban residents in some provinces exceeded 8%. The income growth of residents in most provinces “outperformed” GDP.
The construction of affordable housing has been accelerating. Judging from the data in the first half of the year, the number of sets of basic affordable housing projects in the country has been close to the basic completion targets for the whole year. As of the third quarter, the number of affordable housing starts in Beijing has reached 56,400 sets, far exceeding the task volume of 50,000 sets this year, and 113% of the annual tasks were completed in the first three quarters.
Economic data and reform practice fully prove that the fundamentals of economic development have not changed for a long time, the good supporting foundation and conditions for sustained economic growth have not changed, and the upward trend of economic structural adjustment and optimization has not changed - this is a keen judgment, this is China’s confidence.